SOTTILOTTA C.E. - Political Risk Analysis in a European Perspective (25h)

Political risk analysis can be described as a practice-driven, forward-looking set of activities performed every day by corporate and governmental actors to provide investors with insights into questions that escape the realm of conventional business risks, as they pertain instead to the world of socio-political events. After outlining the main methodological and epistemological challenges that must be faced when considering the role of uncertainty and risk in a fast‐changing, globalized environment, this optional course explores key issues in international political and economic relations with a special focus on the role played by the European Union in international affairs. Topics covered include the analysis of the most widely used techniques in economic and political forecasting (e.g. statistical extrapolation, game theoretical approaches, Delphi techniques, prediction markets, expert judgment), as well as the role of the digital revolution both as a catalyzer for new ‘cyber’ risks and as a generator of new tools for the collection and analysis of intelligence (e.g. big data and the ‘internet of things’). Students are encouraged to engage in critical reasoning using theory applied to a plethora of case studies on unexpected, highly disruptive political and economic developments – such as the global financial crises, the Arab Uprisings, Brexit, or the Covid19 pandemic – which engendered different risk calculations and policy responses by the EU and its member states. The course will enable students with a background in EU Studies, International Relations or similar to gain conceptual and practical skills that enable them to pursue a career in political risk consulting in the public as well as the private sector.

Professor: Cecilia E. SOTTILOTTA

ECTS Card 2020-2021