Dr Andriy TYUSHKA, Senior Research Fellow in the European Neighbourhood Policy Chair at the College of Europe in Natolin, has just published a co-authored policy study - with Prof. Tracey GERMAN from the Defence Studies Department at the King’s College London - titled ‘Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan and the Kyiv Security Compact – An assessment’.
This in-depth analysis (IDA) scrutinizes the different proposals that have been put forward by Ukraine and other actors (including China, Indonesia, and a group of African countries), their visions of ending the Russo-Ukrainian war as well as their visions for the post-war future of Ukraine and the European security order.
It concentrates on the following questions: what are the varying assumptions about the preconditions for peace versus ceasefire? Do the ‘peace’ proposals in question draw a distinction between ceasefire and peace? There is an important difference between war termination, conflict resolution and peacebuilding – how is this dealt with by the various proposals?
Finally, the IDA seeks to assess how feasible the peace proposals are in light of two baseline scenarios for the war’s future course – a stalemate (long war of attrition) and Ukraine’s victory. It concludes that the question of how to sustain Ukraine’s independence and security is central to any discussion of finding an end to the war and a long-term peace, underscoring the centrality of an unambiguous political settlement supported by acceptable, effective guarantors.
This IDA was commissioned by the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET), and can be consulted here.